Singapore breaks away from the peloton of six countries that shared the top spot on the Henley Passport Index as we entered the new year, reclaiming its title as the world’s most powerful passport in the latest ranking published today. The city-state also sets a new record score, with its citizens now enjoying access to 195 travel destinations out of 227 around the world visa-free. France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Spain drop to joint-2nd place, each with visa-free access to 192 destinations, and an unprecedented seven-nation cohort, each with access to 191 destinations without a prior visa — Austria, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, South Korea, and Sweden — now sit in 3rd place on the ranking, which is based on exclusive and official data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The UK hangs onto 4th place along with Belgium, Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, and Switzerland, despite its visa-free destination score falling to 190. The US, on the other hand, continues its now decade-long slide down the index, dropping down to 8th spot, with access to just 186 destinations visa-free. Former passport powerhouses, the UK and the US jointly held 1st place on the index 10 years ago in 2014. Afghanistan remains firmly entrenched as the world’s weakest passport, losing access to yet another destination over the past six months, leaving its citizens with access to only 26 countries visa-free — the lowest score ever recorded in history of the 19-year-old index.
Commenting in the July 2024 edition of the Henley Global Mobility Report, Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, Chairman of Henley & Partners and the inventor of the passport index concept, says “the general trend over the past two decades has been towards greater travel freedom, with the global average number of destinations travelers are able to access visa-free nearly doubling from 58 in 2006 to 111 in 2024. However, the global mobility gap between those at the top and bottom of the index is now wider than it has ever been, with top-ranked Singapore able to access a record-breaking 169 more destinations visa-free than Afghanistan”.
According to IATA, airlines will connect nearly 5 billion people over 22,000 routes on 39 million flights in 2024, and the air cargo transported will reach 62 million tonnes, facilitating an astonishing USD 8.3 trillion in trade. Its Director General, Willie Walsh, says despite the immense value generated by the aviation industry, the margins are incredibly tight. “Our industry expects to record revenues of almost USD 1 trillion this year. Expenses, however, will also be at a record high of USD 936 billion. Net profit will be USD 30.5 billion. This translates to a modest net margin of around 3%, making the profit per passenger just USD 6.14 — barely enough for a single espresso in a typical hotel café. Additionally, this year, the return on invested capital is projected at 5.7%, significantly below the average 9% cost of capital. Despite this, the real cost of air travel has fallen 34% over the last decade.”
Biggest climbers and fallers
The UAE makes it into the Top 10 for the first time, having added an impressive 152 destinations since the index’s inception in 2006 to achieve its current visa-free score of 185, and rising a remarkable 53 places in the ranking from 62nd to 9th position in the process. Henley & Partners CEO, Dr. Juerg Steffen, says the country’s meteoric ascent “is the result of deliberate and concerted efforts by the Emirati government to position the UAE as a global hub for business, tourism, and investment. Our research has consistently shown a strong correlation between a country’s visa-free score and its economic prosperity. Nations with higher visa-free scores tend to enjoy greater GDP per capita, increased foreign direct investment, and more robust international trade relationships”.
Interestingly, both China and Ukraine are among the Top 10 countries that have climbed the highest in the ranking over the past decade. Since 2014, China has jumped up 24 places from 83rd to 59th (with access to 85 destinations visa-free), while Ukraine has advanced by 23 spots, from 53rd to 30th, with its nationals able to visit 148 destinations without a prior visa. Russia, on the other hand, has fallen seven places over the past ten years, from 38th to 45th position (with visa-free access to just 116 destinations).
The biggest faller over the last decade is Venezuela, which has plunged 17 places from 25th to 42nd on the Henley Passport Index. The country is due to hold decisive presidential elections on 28 July that could change the fate of more than seven million Venezuelans who have fled their country over the past decade amid an economic and political crisis brought about by a crash in the oil price combined with chronic government corruption and mismanagement.
Yemen has tumbled 15 places to sit at 100th on the ranking, while both Nigeria and Syria have fallen 13 places to 92nd and 102nd, respectively. Bangladesh comes in as the 5th-biggest faller, dropping 11 places from 86th to 97th position over the past 10 years.
Africa tops the list of EU visa rejections
In exclusive new research conducted for Henley & Partners, Prof. Mehari Taddele Maru, Adjunct Professor at the School of Transnational Governance at the European University Institute, and Johns Hopkins University in Italy, compared Schengen visa rejection rates for African applicants to those from other regions. The results show that around 3 in 10 or 30% of African Schengen visa applicants were rejected, compared to 1 in 10 applicants worldwide, despite the continent having the lowest number of visa applications per capita. He also found evidence that the poorer the African country of origin, the higher the rejection rate for its nationals.
According to Prof. Maru’s research published in the Henley Global Mobility Report 2024 July edition, Africa accounted for seven of the top ten countries globally with the highest Schengen visa rejection rates in 2022: Algeria (45.8%), Guinea-Bissau (45.2%), Nigeria (45.1%), Ghana (43.6%), Senegal (41.6%), Guinea (40.6%), and Mali (39.9%). By contrast, only one in twenty-five applicants residing in the US, Canada, or the UK were rejected, and one in ten applying from Russia. Algerians face a rejection rate 10 times greater than that for those applying in Canada, while Ghanaians are four times more likely to be rejected than Russians. Nigerians face almost three times the rejection rate of Turkish applicants (15.5%) and twice that of Iranians (23.7%).
Prof. Maru says despite justifications based on apparent security or economic concerns, the European visa system clearly demonstrates a pre-determined bias against African applicants. “While factors such as per capita income, the incidence of illegal overstays, and the low rate of return and readmission of Africans illegally present in Europe partially explain these higher rejection rates, they do not fully account for the significantly greater restrictions against African Schengen visa applicants, and, for that matter, the passport strength itself. It is highly likely that European migration policies, shaped by national identity politics, play a more significant role in these discriminatory restrictions than is officially acknowledged.”
He goes on to point out that “Africans face a triple whammy: lower passport power, higher visa rejection rates, and consequently, limited economic mobility. In short, the poorest individuals face the greatest difficulties when seeking to travel or move to more prosperous countries. I would argue that weak economies and discriminatory policies based on identity and culture explain the high rate of rejection for African Schengen visa applicants.”
The links between visa-free access and openness
The Henley Openness Index, which ranks all 199 countries worldwide according to the number of nationalities they permit entry to without a prior visa, is an important element of Henley & Partners’ research into understanding the relationship between a country’s openness to foreigners — how many nations it allows to cross its borders visa-free — and its own citizens’ travel freedom (gauged using the Henley Passport Index).
According to the latest index published today, the Top 20 ‘most open’ countries are all small island nations or African states, with the exception of Cambodia. There are 13 completely open countries in the world that offer visa-free or visa-on-arrival entry to all 198 passports in the world (not counting their own), namely: Burundi, Cape Verde Islands, Comoro Islands, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Maldives, Micronesia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Samoa, Timor-Leste, and Tuvalu. At the bottom of the Henley Openness Index, three countries score zero, permitting no visa-free access for any passport: namely, Afghanistan, North Korea, and Turkmenistan.
The Top 5 countries with the biggest (negative) difference between their own visa-free access and their openness to other nations are Somalia, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, Burundi, and Nepal, and the Top 5 with the least discrepancy between their access and their openness are Singapore, Bahamas, Malaysia, Hong Kong (SAR China), and Barbados.
It is notable that top-ranked Singapore is significantly more open than the remaining five countries of the peloton now pushed into 2nd place on the latest Henley Passport Index. The dynamic city-state ranks 15th on the Henley Openness Index, giving visa-free access to a whopping 164 other nationalities out of 199. By contrast, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain sit way down in 49th position, only allowing 93 countries visa-free access, while Japan is even more closed in 65th position, giving visa-free access to just 70 other nations.
Visa reciprocity matters more
While American passport holders can access 186 (out of 227) destinations visa-free, the US itself allows only 45 other nationalities to pass through its borders visa-free, putting it way down the Henley Openness Index in 78th place (compared to 8th place on the Henley Passport Index). When comparing the two rankings, the USA’s disparity in access versus its openness is the second biggest, narrowly trailing only Australia (and barely outpacing Canada). New Zealand and Japan also make it into the Top 5 countries with the biggest difference between the travel freedom they enjoy versus the visa-free access they provide to other nationalities. It is interesting to note that these five nations have all either dropped down the Henley Passport Index rankings or remained in the same place over the last 10 years.
Commenting in the Henley Global Mobility Report 2024 July, former career diplomat with the U.S. Department of State and a senior non-resident associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Annie Pforzheimer, says business groups in immigration- and tourism-dependent industries in America, such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality, are extremely concerned about the upcoming US election. “Their major worries relate to measures likely to be imposed under a second Trump administration, including ending the Temporary Protected Status regime, rolling back the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals status, and consequent mass deportations for up to 1 million people now eligible for those programs. If Democrats can win back the House and keep the Senate, which currently appears unlikely, there would be an opportunity for them to work with business-friendly Republicans to determine immigration rules that work for the turbulent 21st century.”
Renowned political commentator and best-selling author, Justice Malala, says mainstream political parties across Europe are also hardening their immigration and asylum policies, mimicking surging rightist players. “Even historically progressive countries such as the Netherlands are seeking to install immigration and asylum regimes that are stricter than even the Schengen grouping. In July, South Africa and Botswana’s visa-free travel to Ireland was revoked. Some governments in the global south are questioning these moves and are actively seeking equality in the form of visa reciprocity.”
In May, Namibia unveiled measures to impose entry visa requirements for more than 30 countries that have not reciprocated its open visa regime. Nigeria has also threatened to impose the same measures against countries with strict visa issuance against its passport holders. Malala adds that this “complicates the geopolitical jockeying for influence in Africa between China, the USA, and Russia. Increasingly, Russia and China are opening up access to their countries through the relaxation of visa mechanisms. This as Britain, the Schengen states and other EU members increase barriers to visa-free access to Europe. The call for visa reciprocity is a trickle for now. But we should not be in any doubt that it is part of a greater global movement in which developing countries are confronting policies rooted in colonial perceptions of what Africa, India, Latin America, and others, deserve.”
Impact of travel freedom on economic prosperity
The Henley Global Mobility Report 2024 July also features exclusive research by global data intelligence firm, New World Wealth, into the 20 fastest growing cities in the world for millionaires, citing Shenzhen and Hangzhou in China, with millionaire growth rates of 140% and 125%, respectively, as two of the most important places to be able to access visa-free over the coming decades. India’s Bengaluru, which saw 110% growth in millionaires between 2013 and 2023, Austin (110% increase in the number of millionaires) and Scottsdale (102%) in the US, Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City (100%) and Sharjah in the UAE (95%) are also on the list.
Andrew Amoils, Head of Research for New World Wealth, says “the ability to travel visa-free or having the option to move your business to a more favorable city have become crucial elements in international wealth and legacy planning for affluent individuals. Increasing numbers of global investors are utilizing investment migration as a mechanism to invest in, access, and operate across a range of wealth hubs worldwide.”
